It is interesting to note that, as previous research has shown Steeper , polls conducted several days after the debates—and after subsequent media coverage of them—showed larger majorities believing that Kerry had won each. The American electoral system is entering a period of dynamic technological change with the passage of the Help America Vote Act of As the voting procedures and devices change and more opportunities to vote early arise, preelection and exit pollsters will face new challenges for the standard telephone surveys of voters at home and face-to-face interviews with voters leaving the polls.
More public disclosure of methods and their consequences will be required to maintain public confidence in the profession, as well as in the basic foundation of the American electoral system and its transparency to the public. This analysis does not include computerized polls that employ computerized voices and do not allow for respondent selection.
A copy of the ad may be found at www. The next day, USA Today , a major Gallup client, affirmed its belief in the Gallup results in an article that included a reference to the ad Memmott These firms are not included in this analysis because they interview by computer over the telephone without a human interface, and specific respondent selection cannot be assured.
For example, the Gallup Organization produced eight tracking poll estimates in September 5, 15, and 26 and October 3, 10, 16, 24, and This is based on final vote counts as reported by McDonald and Leip The final survey questionnaire, available at www.
Still thinking about the election for U. President that will be held on November 2nd—. If the election for U. President were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote. A full description of the derivation and formula for A can be found in Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy , pp. See also Huffington , and Taylor for examples of this kind of discussion before the election.
An excellent summary of the issues raised during the campaign posted after the election can be found at www. While the focus of this discussion is on the tracking poll estimates, graphical presentations of public polling data available from the Web site of Steven Ruggles www. Bush across his first term, while Zogby produced systematically lower levels. There was the usual posturing by candidates and their negotiating teams about the dates and the protocol for the organization of the debates.
In the end, the negotiating teams agreed to the proposed schedule, but they produced a page document of terms and conditions for the debates themselves. In an unusual move, they asked the journalists and news organizations to sign off on the agreement, but these key actors refused.
A full recounting of the schedule and agreement can be found at www. In , the Democratic National Committee also circulated such e-mails in advance of each debate see www. For example, a poll of registered voters five days after the first debate indicated that 60 percent thought Kerry had won, against just 23 percent who thought Bush had, compared to the point advantage in the polls cited above among viewers on the night of the first debate www.
The author would like to acknowledge the helpful comments of anonymous reviewers on an earlier draft. Blumenthal , Mark. Erikson , Robert S. Huffington , Arianna. Available online at www. Kennedy , Courtney , and Michael W. Lau , Richard R. Leip , David.
Presidential Elections. MacKuen , Michael B. Erikson, James A. Stimson, Paul R. Abramson, and Charles W. Ostrom, Jr. Martin , Elizabeth A. Traugott, and Courtney Kennedy. McDonald , Michael P. Voter Participation in the Presidential Election. Memmott , Mark. Mitofsky , Warren J. Mosteller , F. Hyman, P. McCarthy, E. Marks, and D. Schuman , Howard , and Stanley Presser. Smith , Tom W. Steeper , Fred. Media, Electoral, and Policy Perspectives , ed.
Bishop, R. Meadow, and M. Jackson-Beack, pp. New York: Praeger. Taylor , Steven. Registered Voter Issue. Traugott , Michael W. Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide.
Sign In or Create an Account. Sign In. Advanced Search. Search Menu. Article Navigation. Close mobile search navigation Article Navigation. Volume Article Contents Abstract. The Performance of the Preelection Polls. The Estimation of Likely Voters. The Postdebate Polls. Traugott Michael W. Address correspondence to the author; e-mail: mtrau umich.
Oxford Academic. Google Scholar. Cite Cite Michael W. Select Format Select format. Permissions Icon Permissions. Abstract The presidential election campaign provided a venue for a wide variety of polling, and it was not without its controversies.
Figure 1. Open in new tab Download slide. Table 1. Field Period. Bush Lead. Predictive Accuracy A. Mosteller Measure 3. Mosteller Measure 5. Election Result Open in new tab. Table 2. Average Errors in Presidential Polls, — Mosteller Method 3.
Mosteller Method 5. Table 3. First Debate September Second Debate October 8. Third Debate October The presidential general election took place on November 2, ; see official results and voter turnout. If you are looking for raw election data for the General Election please see our election data page. Election Assistance Commission EAC is required to submit to Congress reports on various election activities, including voter registration, provisional voting, and voting by military and overseas citizens.
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